popsonpops asked: How come stats at the college level seem to not translate into great players in the pro game? I feel like you see these huge busts that were prolific scorers/defensive players at the college-level. Do you think that this is an area where advanced statistics will begin to play a larger role to lower the risk of picking a bust?

Hmmm, good question. A main cause for this discrepancy in talent level is the competition. Although the pool of players is smaller, consider that one kid that dominated your little league, pop warner team, etc. Players may top out early, be good on that one level, but when moving on to that next level, cannot adapt to the faster paced game. 

Now on that note, some stats may show some talents level, but a lot of it is raw ability. I am most familiar with baseball, so I would say some unbiased stats would be the defensive stats whether it is range factor and total zone fielding can be applicable for a reliable defensive player. I am sure they have something very similar for college football players. Everything else is a result of your opponent’s talent level whether it be hitting, pitching, or base running. Even if you found a way to make stats unbiased in regards to competition, they have been using metal bats in college, which can skew hitting and pitching stats. Some good stats that I would look at hitting(OBP, K/BB ratio, Spray chart for hits, Spray chart for outs), pitching( K/BB ratio, % of strikes overall, % of strikes fastball, % of strikes offspeed 1, 2, 3…, ), fielding (what I listed above), running (30 yd time, 60 yd time)

In other sports, since they cannot get drafted directly out of high school, the talent pool is much greater in college sports, so that is where advanced scouting comes in. The varying rules make things a little bit tougher, for example: wider pocket in college football, 35 second shotclock in college bball. Advanced scouting has picked apart college athletes through tape or attending games on a talent basis and has done a fairly good job. Stats come in larger for gameday matchups and signing free agents. Most of the smart drafting comes from franchises who invest more in their scouting. The Dodgers used to spend a lot of money on scouting and turned out rookies of the year one after the other. The Yankees rely heavily on scouting. A lot of fans question their management and strategies to lock up players with enticing contracts. However, the Yankees have always scouted well, allowing them to make trades or grow from within. Cano, Jeter, Gardner all were drafted by the Yankees, ARod and Granderson were acquired through trades (mostly of prospects the Yankees scouted), and the rest were acquired with contracts. Other notables: Mariano Rivera and David Robertson, with Jesus Montero and Austin Romine looming. 

We will see newer stats come out that put this theory to myth, but those are still being worked on by mathematicians and other analytic teams.